(1) Oklahoma City Thunder versus (5) Dallas Mavericks
“I’m getting a time machine and telling a Hawks fan that their draft pick will one day score 73 in Atlanta and then leave.” - Anonymous
Once Kleber went down, this series became a bit harder to get an early grasp on. Dallas doesn’t have the same lineup flexibility they once had, and they lose the only role player who shot well from three last series. Instead of playing Kleber at center for a small, athletic defensive approach, if Kidd wishes to go small, he’d have to play Washington at center who hasn’t logged minutes there. Washington is capable, but then Kidd would be forced to slide a small forward to power forward who also likely hasn’t logged minutes in that position too. Dallas lost the best edge they once had before the series even starts, and how you feel about Gafford/Lively Jr. having to play nearly 48 minutes of good center basketball around Holmgren should decide the series for you.
They’re more likely to be roamers off Giddey, who by the way is a potential x-factor for his shooting. Washington should get the main Holgrem assignment, but it is important that Dallas’ centers make up for the lack of lineup flexibility. If they do end up being on Holgrem through crossmatches or switches, they need to be able to move with his speed which I’m not entirely sure that’s possible. Holgrem is still mostly a playoff unknown.
The combination of Dort/Holgrem has been a great defensive duo. Luka/Kyrie may have their work cut out for them. How does Holgrem handle them in a drop or switch? I imagine with the combined experience of Luka/Kyrie, they’d feel comfortable going at the body of Holgrem since he’s on the lighter side as far as centers go. These two are some of the better rim finishers in the league, and I’d trust them over the talented rookie center.
Dallas has the option to rotate and keep Shai guessing with multiple guards and forward defenders. I’m less concerned with Shai’s individual performance and more concerned with the role players. He’s going to see many different coverages including traps, so Dallas’ ability to defend drives and contest three-point shots will be tested. Again, Kleber would make this much easier to deal with, but the Dallas frontline will need to be able to force Oklahoma City role players into uncomfortable positions.
All that leaves are the margins. Dallas clearly has the rebounding edge, and their center rotation need to take advantage. Oklahoma City wants to keep forcing turnovers to make up for losing the glass. Dallas is exceptional at taking care of the ball, so maybe Dallas has a possession advantage in the series.
It’s yet another coin flip for me. Oklahoma City is already difficult to think about because of their youth but great talent while Dallas loses lineup flexibility. I trust experience more than most people, so I guess Dallas.
Dallas wins if: Dallas takes care of the ball and win the glass. Dallas’ centers are comfortable offensively and defensively around Holgrem. Giddy bricks shots. Holgrem is no match for hindering talented offensive players at the rim.
Oklahoma City wins if: Dallas has turnover issues. Holgrem outruns, out shoots, and out plays the Dallas centers. Oklahoma City’s role players show up more than Dallas’. Luka/Kyrie are stymied by Dort/Holgrem.
Dallas in six.
(1) Boston Celtics versus (4) Cleveland Cavaliers
I'm just not caring about the eastern conference right now. Both of these teams are the poster child for Jekyll & Hyde. Who can be the least inconsistent? I wouldn't be surprised if Boston swept or had to win a game 7. I detest thinking about Boston and Cleveland, and now they're in the same series.
Boston in whatever they feel like doing.
